BRIDGE Publications

Uncertainty and Transparency: Augmenting Modelling and Prediction for Crisis Response

Sung-Yueh Perng and Monika Büscher (Lancaster University)

 

Abstract

Emergencies are characterised by uncertainty. This motivates the design of information systems that model and predict complex natural, material or human processes to support understanding and reduce uncertainty through prediction. The correspondence between system models and reality, however, is also governed by uncertainties, and designers have developed methods to render 'the world' transparent in ways that can inform, fine-tune and validate models. Additionally, people experience uncertainties in their use of simulation and prediction systems. This is a major obstacle to effective utilisation. We discuss ethically and socially motivated demands for transparency.

 

Full paper

 

 

Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management
(ISCRAM 2015), Kristiansand, Norway, 24-27 May 2015, Palen, Büscher, Comes & Hughes, eds.

 

 

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